Current Affairs
Specials

Is a Cold War 2.0 inevitable?

  • Posted By
    10Pointer
  • Categories
    World Affairs
  • Published
    24th Apr, 2021
Is a Cold War 2.0 inevitable?

Introduction

  • The global system has never been connected as shown by the outbreak of COVID-19.
  • An unexpected manifestation of this epidemic is the unpredictable division of the world since the Cold War.
  • It begs the question - is the world witnessing the beginning of a new bipolar era of global competition?
  • Earth's energy rises and falls. The pendulum swings back and forth, and a weak balance is achieved through the ongoing struggle for power and the influence that keeps world affairs going.
  • The concept behind it is to increase profits, build stronger relationships and partnerships, and build sufficient capacity to harness the power of the national government.
  • Any competitor who is strong enough to question the dominance of the world power will certainly seize the opportunity to fill vacancies wherever they arise.
  • In the presence of a hegemonic, there is always a dividing process that leads to the creation of a second system organized around a single-stakeholder or group of rivals seeking to undermine the world's highest power.
  • To put it bluntly: global inflation is not possible these days without the power to predict the power that allows the US to control the flow of connected goods, money, services, and data, and to protect trade and transport routes from disruption could cause major supply shocks.
  • International affairs are often influenced by competition and cooperation. The global system has recently entered a new era of transformation through the construction of two power centers - the US and China.
  • The first has severely strained international relations since the fall of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War by using world powers through international networks established over decades of world domination.
  • On the other hand, given China's impressive growth patterns, even during the COVID-19 epidemic, there are high expectations for its continued globalization.
  • However, it remains to be seen whether Beijing will be able to turn its growing geo-economics and political influence into a global power.
  • Under any circumstances, the global system is already facing serious consequences, with lasting implications for international affairs. Is Cold War 2.0 inevitable in competition between the US and China?

Understanding the China factor

  • China is the only competitor that can combine its economic, political, military and technological capabilities to pose a continuing challenge to a stable and transparent global system.
  • China is portrayed as the "most powerful American rival and rival of the United States" and "the great test of the great American politics of the 21st century."
  • While China identifies the US as "the greatest source of conflict in the modern world" and "a major threat to the development and security of our country."

Chimerica

The integration of China into US-led systems during the Cold War and afterwards led to the emergence of what many have termed as “Chimerica.”

  • Furthermore, by the end of last year, the [Five-Year] plan would not only extend to the military but also to economic, financial and technical security.

The rivalry and China’s strategic moves across the Globe

  • Organized conflict means competition for access to and control of networks and global economic structures.
  • Global trade has created a very close relationship between Washington and Beijing, while also causing China's subsequent rise.
  • This unintended consequence has led to China challenging US rule in various fields.
  • This progressive phenomenon has a 'Cold War-like structure' and may contribute to the emergence of a so-called system downturn - "the creation of two different, often competitive, systems."
  • China seeks to establish a global connection through Eurasia with the heart of the European industry - Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain.
  • Central and Eastern Europe is the key to conquering the "heartland" as control of these regions will make China's world power.
  • The BRI includes two land routes to Central and Eastern Europe - one passing through Russia, and the other passing through Central Asia and Turkey.
  • In addition, Beijing also introduced various political and economic forums for participation and cooperation, with the 'Partnership between China and Eastern European countries' (or '17 +1') most prominent among them.
  • China is also building its maritime capacity in the 'peripheral areas' of the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific, and has established a "pearl" route in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) region to build a network of friendly ports and trading posts in nearby India as part of the sea connection Within the BRI.
  • If China can improve Eurasian purchases and protect it, it will not need to be like America in the maritime sector.
  • China holds the opportunity to be the first global power in Asia in the current international relations.
  • However, China's global rise will be largely determined by the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its ability to establish global financial, trade, energy, economic and communications networks.
  • In contrast to the global bipolar disorder established during the Cold War, the planned conflict between the US and China is simultaneous at sea and on land.

There are four domains that will be crucial in determining the outcome of this mutual competition  

  1. Political economy
  2. Technology
  3. International rules and ideology
  4. Partnerships and alliances

Political economy

  • The distribution of power is at the heart of international relations.
  • It is at the forefront of systemic divisions between the US and China following the shift of global power from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific.
  • The rivalry between the two rivals of the program had already begun when former US President Barack Obama introduced the American pivot to Asia and worked with nations based on building institutional alliances, trade blocks and alliances against China's major geo-economics.
  • But the US is not alone in pursuing the 'American' abolition; China is also committed to ending its reliance on American financial, financial, economic, trade, communications and technology networks.
  • China focuses on "maintaining economic growth and prosperity, developing its domestic markets, developing new methods and technologies, improving its military capabilities and maintaining domestic stability."
  • Its approach apparently aims to achieve greater satisfaction by establishing alternatives and incorporating bizarre connections "forcing China and the United States to fully understand" due to the complex challenges and segregation of world affairs today.

Technology

  • The state of globalization is determined by geo-economics and the geopolitical model of the expansion of the world power that established the world power, as Great Britain did in the nineteenth century and the US did at the end of the Cold War in the twentieth century.
  • Both provinces gained prominence in world affairs by embarking on a wave of earlier industrial revolution.
  • Efforts to build resilience during the Fourth Industrial Revolution require a campaign to address the sophistication of critical technology and global supply chains.
  • Reorganization of global supply chains away from China is taking place as the US capital shifts from Beijing during COVID-19.
  • Global disruption of supply chain, as well as law-abiding global order and the deterioration of global infrastructure, have affected all regions of the world.
  • But the restructuring will be initiated mainly by the US to bring production and supply chains to the home or countries of trusted partners.
  • Moving production from traditional to new facilities will take time and effort but will also create new geo-economics benefits for a particular actor like India, which is expected to be the third largest economy in the world in the next decade.
  • Regional trade institutions, such as Japan and the European Union (EU), have begun considering the removal of production plans from China.
  • In the long run, two parallel network chains may emerge - one based on the US, the other on China.
  • Sectors such as space technology, automation, defense and cyber security will prove to invest in strategies to stimulate the growth of new regional power centers.
  • This is important because any significant emergence in these areas will provide global competition and the benefits of geo-economics.
  • This explains why the rivalry between the United States and China represents not only a trade war but a broader conflict that extends to global networks of finance, trade, economics, communications, energy, defense and more.

International rules and ideology

  • The Cold War included competition for international systematic pricing, procedures, and laws.
  • After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US was able to articulate this agenda by promoting the ideals of a democratic political process that goes hand in hand with market economics, human rights, and freedom.
  • Similarly, the outcome of the ongoing competition between Washington and Beijing will also have an impact on the future of global order in terms of norms, standards, laws and values.
  • This will be involved in the continuation of a formal dialogue between China and Russia ("Dragon bear" signifying "willingness to challenge the world order and the US situation in it."
  • Although there is no clear doctrinal competition at the moment, the US-led free world is facing a threat from the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party dictatorship and the model of domination.
  • Following China's global rise, dictatorships and ideologies have established a region in Southeast Asia, with "powerful heroes in Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia, single groups in Laos and Vietnam, and democracy eroding in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia."
  • China has also drawn international attention to human rights abuses, "including the fight against pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the Uighurs in Xinjiang."
  • There is also speculation that Beijing may seek to infiltrate Taiwan's political and economic structures in order to regulate its processes and structures over time.
  • At the same time, the demand for the vaccine COVID-19 has introduced a new dimension in the ongoing global vaccine war, and will pose a new challenge to the West as China seeks to establish a "Health Silk Road" start of the epidemic to support partner countries.
  • In addition, Beijing aims to enhance its global image through its vaccination talks.
  • In response, the US and its closest Indo-Pacific partners - India, Japan and Australia; jointly known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) - committed to boosting the supply of COVID-19 vaccines at their first conference and pledged cooperation in the maritime, security and cyber sectors to address China's challenges.
  • Quad cooperation seeks to enhance security and security links between the four Indo-Pacific countries, while fighting China's rise in the region.
  • China and Russia are operating in a global manner with the clear intention of disrupting it, dismantling its international structures, and creating better conditions for their multilateral thinking, in stark contrast to Western norms, norms and laws.
  • The concerted efforts of the Drag bear within the UNSC and other international organizations are likely to grow steadily, as both provinces will seek to enhance their international image as policymakers in a dynamic manner based on international law.

Partnerships and alliances

  • The emergence of regional power institutions has created the illusion of more solidarity, as the system of unity between the United States and China encompasses all relevant networks.
  • A key layer of the global system consists of a middle ground between Washington and Beijing to maximize their profits while avoiding bias for as long as possible - no allies, or perpetual enemies, only eternal and never-ending interests.
  • This looks to be the world's leading political path for the next decade of the Indo-Pacific.
  • To measure China's growing presence in the IOR and its target areas, India expanded its regional and international cooperation network through various security and defense stars, "while also playing, carefully and diligently, the Indo-Pacific card."
  • Other key players such as Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Australia and Turkey have similarities, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic - playing a balanced act between the US and China while delaying the difficult task of choosing a side.
  • From a political point of view, the biggest new game will be in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean due to the growing competition between the two Asian bulls, China and India, in addition to the planned conflict between China and the US. .
  • The worst areas and possible causes of the US-China conflict are the South and East China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Caspian, and the Black Sea, as well as the Middle East and North Africa.
  • The situation is still expected in the global energy and food areas as well as the Chinese Belt and Road connection.
  • China has been at the forefront of various international organizations, such as the BRICS, Asia Investment and Infrastructure Bank and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as trading centers such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes 15 countries in the region. Asia-Pacific but does not include major economic powers such as the US, the EU and India.
  • The gap between the US and China has not only led to the fragmentation of global order but has also severely strained the power of the centralized states.

Way forward

China has become a foreign power in American domestic politics, but the US may have little control over China's domestic affairs. International cooperation has become a function of competition and organized competition between Washington and Beijing. But this race does not have to turn into a straightforward one.

Competition between the US and China is exacerbated by declining technologies, geo-economics and institutional degradation as exerted by centralized coalitions. China has already become a second world power and has begun to challenge existing international structures and networks.

While the US seeks to preserve its institutional heritage, technological power and geo-economics in partnership with transatlantic partners and regional partners, China will clearly aim to develop and promote alternative measures and programs to combat American domination. Ultimately, systematic competition between the US and China will divide the trusty and global world by establishing greater bipolarity forces, affecting the entire global system deeply.

A hopeless situation will mean further decline and consensus, while a vision of hope produces more peaceful peace, Beijing focuses on cooperation and commitment to strengthen its domestic development to the point of creating opposition to the strong American influence.

In both cases, the message is clear - every actor, big or small, will have to choose between two very different contributions to the world, each with its own rules, rules and ideas.

  • The US has so far been China's largest source of wealth. And yet, Washington could also be a major source of China's extinction.
  • The United States will never hesitate to promote this idea under increasingly difficult competitive power conditions.